The correlation between withdrawal of deposits and the Covid death rate is stark, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The home loan top-up, a kind of secured multipurpose personal loan, is on the regulator's radar, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Not all public sector banks are back in the black, but their collective net profit for the year is Rs 32,346 crore against a Rs 9,013 crore loss in the previous year, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In the June quarter of FY24, 51 per cent of consumers who took small-ticket personal loans already had more than four credit products at the time of accessing yet another new loan, compared with just 17 per cent in the June quarter of FY20, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Like doctors, health workers, police, bankers are also COVID warriors,' notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The governor made it clear that the RBI is aware of what's happening and acts accordingly, but doesn't make a noise about that, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
RBL Bank is no Yes Bank. It's not fraught with fraud. It's a story of limitless ambition and greed for growth under a leader who doesn't want to give up, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In the new decade, the scene will change because the banks till recently had been challenged by the fintechs, but the techfins have now entered the arena, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Merely bringing down the government stake below 51% may not find any taker for the PSBs. The government must bring down its holding to at least 26%, recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'The no-rate cut policy and preference to wait for the Budget and clarity on the fiscal front demonstrate RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is maturing in his new role,' notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'We can't have the best of both worlds -- large, efficient, world class government-owned banks, doing social banking and making profits. 'Why not set them free from the shackles of such obligations and run them as business units?' says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
What connects P S Jayakumar of Bank of Baroda, V Vaidyanathan of Capital First Ltd and Chandra Shekhar Ghosh of Bandhan?
Indeed, there were frauds, and the politician-banker-industrialist nexus played a role in the rise of NPAs, but governance issues in Indian banking are far more nuanced and complex, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
How much will the banks' bad assets grow in March? It could be anywhere between Rs 1.2 trillion and Rs 2 trillion, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
With the rise in interest rates, bond yields have been on the rise; this will dent banks' treasury profits. Also, many retail borrowers may find it difficult to service their loans when the loan rates rise, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Shifting to floating rate deposits can work as an anaesthetic gel for some customers, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
If the banks throw caution to the winds for building loan books, the hydra-headed bad loans may resurface and spoil the party, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'One way of doing this could be offering credit guarantee to the banks, say 10 per cent, for fresh loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises,' observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
What will be its impact on the banks's balance sheets? Since banks need to provide for 10 per cent of the loans restructured, they would need Rs 50,000 crores to Rs 80,000 crore for this purpose, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
It is difficult to say if the banking sector will see the worst behind it by March 2020, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Clearly, the depositors of cooperative banks need the maximum protection.'
'The CEO will neither be able to guide the senior team in operational matters nor decide on their appointment, compensation or removal.' 'Yet, the CEO is responsible for the profit and loss of the bank!' 'Why would the senior executives listen to him?' 'Which self-respecting professional would want to be a CEO with these constraints?' asks Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The origin of the challenge is the so-called "fresh start" process. Many in the MFI industry apprehend that such a law in India will encourage small unsecured borrowers to default and destroy the credit culture. So, while'Fresh start' is a welcome step as it will free up the debtors from the archaic laws of the colonial era, debtors need handholding and counselling to prevent any misuse, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
If you are running a sweetmeat shop, will you manage a dairy for milk supply or buy milk from the market? Banks are running a dairy (which has its cost for processing milk), while NBFCs are buying milk from the market, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
For the time being, digital lending remains a grey area, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Every political party loves to use the bait of loan waiver to woo the electorate. If their hearts bleed for the poor, they can always use the party funds to pay off the lenders, suggests Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
We must stop stigmatising business failures. Particularly when startups are mushrooming all around, the financial system, backed by the RBI and the government, can explore ways of extending support to restart the journey of a failed entrepreneur by finance as well as counselling, recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The growth opportunity for a business, people running the business, governance structure at a company, technology adoption and the firm's belief in frugality are the list of priorities which should be considered before choosing a stock to invest in, Jhunjunwala said.
Individual banks should break away from the industry pact and have their own settlements with the unions, recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Infusion of fresh capital, handsome growth in deposits and focus on recovery should bring Yes Bank back on the growth path in the next financial year,' observes Tamal Bandyopodhyay.
The evolving RBI-government relationship, a reversal in the interest rate cycle and return to profitability will dominate bankers' conversation this year, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Banks do extensive investigation before declaring an account fraud; they owe it to us as they deal with our money. Why would they try to fix an innocent borrower? asks Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'The RBI has not allowed any commercial bank to fail in the past three decades.' 'It has always played the role of a matchmaker, but this is the best deal it has stitched,' notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'The new ceiling will cover around 93 per cent of all deposit accounts, up from 90 per cent earlier,' notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Its obsession for growth, chasing corporate clients and giving up its original mandate of meeting the needs of local trade and businesses. A quarter of its loan book has gone bad. That's an error of business strategy, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Banks feel happy shifting their toxic assets from loan books to investment books while the ARCs enjoy the management fees with a smile, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
None of the four benchmarks suggested by the RBI is ideal as banks in India create loan assets from their deposits and not borrowing from the regulator or market, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'In their over-enthusiasm to clean up the system, both the banks and the regulator should not forget that the key to the insolvency law is revival of companies -- recovery of bank dues is an offshoot of that,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
